Madhes parties ‘lose’ grip on bastion

CHADRANIGAHPUR, OCT 30 -

The Madhesi parties who had achieved an overwhelming victory in the first Constituent Assembly election from mid-Tarai have a tough battle ahead as the “influence” of Madhes movement has “faded” over the past half decade.

Three Madhesi parties who had won in around 60 percent constituencies—25 out of 48—in the eight districts of mid-Tarai—an epicentre of the Madhes Movement—will struggle to retain their position as the people are seriously weighing the parties this time around. “It was a whimsical vote last time as the Madhes Movement had a great influence then,” said Binod Gupta, a lecturer and political analyst from Birgunj. “Madhesi people will evaluate candidates before casting their vote this time.”

In the 2008 polls, apart from garnering victory in a majority of seats, the Madhes-based parties had top three positions in four constituencies, were nearest rivals in six and gained top two positions in five constituencies.

Election candidates have been facing scores of questions from their constituencies as to what they did for the welfare of the people after being elected. Sanghiya Sadbhawana Party Chairman and former minister Anil Kumar Jha accepts that the impact of the Madhes Movement has faded with time and leaders are not going to get votes just because they belong to a Madhesi party.

“Voters are studying the background of candidates and what they had done for them,” he said, adding that the personality and commitment of candidates would count more than their party.

Locals care more about development activities than political agenda such as federalism or autonomy. “We vote for those who have a strong development roadmap,” said Ram Charitra Sah from Pipra Rajbada in Rautahat.

According to political analyst Chandrakishore, three Cs—caste, caste division and crime—will equally influence the vote along with the commitment and background of a candidate. “Definitely, it’s not easy for Madhesi parties this time. However, they still have a significant hold on the people,” he said. Having travelled well across the Tarai, he thinks national parties will benefit from the fragmentation in the regional parties.

Three major Madhes-based parties—Sadbhawana Party, Madhesi Janadhikar Forum and Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party—that contested the earlier polls have split to 13 factions now.

Many candidates agree with Chandrakishore that election campaigns have been costlier. They believe that one may not win unless they pour a large amount of money. “It takes a minimum of Rs 3 million which can increase depending on the strategy of the rival candidate,” said a candidate for Rautahat-4.